The death of the quarterly model

The rumor mill is spinning fast today, and it looks like AEW is adding another tentpole event to its summer lineup. According to a recent Wrestling Inc report, Tony Khan is targeting Montreal for a brand-new pay-per-view this July. The rumored name is "Redemption."

Expanding into a notoriously hot Canadian wrestling market makes business sense. But the timing of this event raises some massive red flags about AEW's creative direction. Let's actually look at the calendar for a second.

We already have Double or Nothing locked in for May 24. Historically, the crossover spectacle of Forbidden Door takes up the late June slot. All In will obviously dominate August when they return to Wembley Stadium. All Out follows immediately in September. Squeezing a July PPV into that stretch means AEW will be running a major show every single month for five straight months. The quarterly model is dead.

The booking time crunch

Tony Khan has openly talked about wanting to expand the pay-per-view schedule. The financial logic is obvious. Premium live events remain a massive revenue driver, and adding more shows means more guaranteed cash injections to offset high talent contracts. But from a creative standpoint, the shift to a monthly model has exposed serious structural flaws in how AEW operates.

When the company ran four major shows a year, storylines had room to breathe. Feuds could simmer on Dynamite and Collision for weeks before reaching a boiling point. Now, we are increasingly seeing the rushed, panic-button style of booking. A number one contender is often crowned just ten days before a massive title match. AEW simply does not have the well-oiled promotional machine of WWE to mask those rushed builds with slick video packages.

Look at how the company handled the lead-up to Dynasty back in March. Several matches were announced via social media graphics rather than in-ring promos. When you are asking fans to spend premium money, they expect premium television builds. The Bloodline saga in WWE works because it was plotted out meticulously over years. AEW often feels like it is being written on a cocktail napkin on a Thursday morning.

If Redemption happens in mid-July, Khan will have roughly three weeks to build an entire card from scratch following the fallout of Forbidden Door. That is a terrifying prospect. We have already seen what happens when this creative team scrambles to put together a card on short notice. Matches are thrown together based on random backstage altercations rather than deeply rooted personal issues. It leads to cards that feel like filler.

There is also the fatigue factor for the fans. Asking your audience to drop $50 every single month is a massive ask right now. Even the most hardcore AEW diehards have their breaking points. At some point, you reach a saturation point where a PPV stops feeling like a destination event and starts feeling like just another episode of Dynamite with a hefty cover charge. This is a dangerous game.

Why Montreal demands better

The choice of Montreal as the host city is fascinating. It is an undeniably legendary wrestling town. The Bell Centre crowd is notoriously loud, passionate, and fiercely loyal to their own. Ever since the Montreal Screwjob in 1997, this city has demanded a certain level of dramatic stakes from its wrestling. They don't just want good matches. They want visceral emotion. If you give them a cold, heatless exhibition match, they will sit on their hands or chant for someone who isn't even in the building.

But who does AEW have to play the hometown hero? Chris Jericho has deep ties to the city, but a Jericho main event in 2026 isn't moving the needle the way it did five years ago. "Daddy Magic" Matt Menard and Evil Uno are great supporting characters. They are entertaining. But they aren't drawing a massive arena crowd on their own.

This means AEW will have to rely on pure star power and top-tier storytelling rather than local flavor to sell the building. That puts the pressure squarely on the shoulders of the main event scene. Montreal fans are incredibly smart. The fans will turn quickly if they feel like they are being handed a phoned-in, secondary card.

Predicting the Redemption card

Here is my firm prediction for how this plays out. AEW Redemption will officially be announced within the next few weeks, likely during the Double or Nothing broadcast on May 24. The gate will be surprisingly strong initially. The novelty of AEW running a massive event in Montreal will move tickets fast.

But the build-up will be a disjointed mess. Khan will be so entirely focused on navigating the political complexities of the New Japan Pro-Wrestling and CMLL partnerships for Forbidden Door in June that the July show will become a creative afterthought. The television build won't start in earnest until the first week of July.

I expect the main event to be an absolute banger to overcompensate for the weak television build. My money is on Swerve Strickland defending the World Championship against Christian Cage. Putting Christian in Montreal is brilliant. He is from Ontario, and the natural rivalry between Quebec and Ontario is an easy button to press for nuclear heat. Christian cutting a vicious heel promo on the Montreal Canadiens before eating a House Call from Swerve is exactly the kind of moment that justifies a PPV buy.

Will Ospreay will likely defend his championship in a 30-minute classic against a top-tier worker like a returning Pac or a newly heel-turned Orange Cassidy. Ospreay has been working at an unbelievable pace since officially joining the roster. He is wrestling long, grueling matches on free television almost weekly. If you book him for Double or Nothing, Forbidden Door, Redemption, All In, and All Out consecutively, you are begging for an injury. The human body is not meant to take that kind of punishment. But for now, putting him in front of a molten Montreal crowd is a guaranteed four-and-a-half-star match minimum.

I also predict we will see Mercedes Moné defend the TBS Championship against a rising star like Skye Blue or Julia Hart. Moné has been the focal point of the women's division since her debut, but she needs high-profile reps against the younger homegrown talent to truly solidify her reign. Montreal would provide the perfect loud, critical atmosphere to test those matchups.

The undercard problem

While the top of the card will deliver, the undercard will suffer from the compressed schedule. We will likely see a thrown-together multi-man ladder match or a casino battle royale just to get bodies on the show. AEW loves relying on multi-man chaos when they don't have time to write actual singles feuds.

And let's not forget the tag team division, which used to be the crown jewel of AEW. Right now, it feels completely rudderless. The Young Bucks are doing their executive heel schtick, but the actual competitive depth of the division has fallen off a cliff. Expect a hastily assembled three-way tag match on the Redemption card that features incredible spots but zero emotional investment.

There will be at least two matches involving factions that have been feuding for entirely too long without a clear resolution. The Undisputed Kingdom or the Don Callis Family will likely drag out a midcard program that should have ended weeks prior. You cannot effectively run a monthly pay-per-view schedule with a one-man creative committee. It just doesn't work.

The breaking point

Television ratings for Dynamite have hovered in the 700,000 to 800,000 range for months. The audience has plateaued. Adding another pay-per-view isn't going to magically draw in new viewers. It is simply extracting more cash from the existing, loyal fanbase. If you squeeze the sponge too hard, eventually it runs dry.

Ultimately, AEW Redemption will be a financial win but a critical warning sign. It will prove that Tony Khan can sell out buildings based on brand loyalty and the promise of elite in-ring work. But it will also highlight the absolute unsustainability of the current booking model.

The reality is that fans are being forced to make hard choices. When you stack Double or Nothing, Forbidden Door, Redemption, All In, and All Out in a row, most viewers are going to skip at least one. My prediction is that Redemption becomes the sacrificial lamb of the summer schedule. The hardcore fans will buy it, but the casual viewer who normally drops money four times a year will simply wait for Wembley.

If Tony Khan doesn't start delegating creative responsibilities and planning out his storylines months in advance, these monthly events are going to start cannibalizing each other. Montreal will get a great show because the talent in the ring is simply too good to fail. But the road to get there is going to be bumpy, frustrating, and entirely avoidable. The summer of 2026 is going to be the most grueling stretch in company history.