The shadow of Portland looms over Las Vegas
AEW arrived in Portland earlier this week for Collision and Dynamite with the singular goal of building momentum for Double or Nothing. Will Ospreay’s victory over Katsuyori Shibata at the 10:48 mark via Hidden Blade provided the necessary adrenaline, yet the overall direction feels erratic. Strategic plotting by the Young Bucks and Chris Jericho suggests a shift in focus, but the booking needs more consistency than an alliance of convenience.
The independent scene is churning out talent at a rapid clip, as seen in the recent Wrestling Open card where Brett Mettro secured a critical pinfall win. AEW management should take note. Relying on the same veteran tropes while legitimate breakout stars are honing their craft in smaller promotions is a recurring oversight. The promotion needs to weave these hungry, younger performers into the fold rather than leaving them to toil in New England breweries.
The danger of over-reliance on older stars
Watching TNA’s recent Xplosion output, specifically Jada Stone’s victory over M By Elegance, highlights a stark contrast in presentation. Stone worked an 8:48 match that focused on clean execution and efficient ring movement. AEW, by comparison, often drifts into overly long segments that lack the same tactical discipline. When the main roster relies on nostalgia or recycled feuds, the match quality suffers from a lack of urgency.
The 10:48 runtime of the Ospreay-Shibata scrap was an outlier in terms of efficiency for this week's television. Most other segments felt like filler designed just to reach the commercial break. Without a tightening of the match structures, Tony Khan risks alienating the segment of the fanbase that values sound psychology over spectacle. The reliance on cinematic production value is a crutch, and unless the ring work matches the visual flair, the product will remain stagnant.
The prediction for the weekend
Double or Nothing is frequently treated as a landmark event, but this year necessitates a structural overhaul. If the booking remains predictable, the spectacle will fail to mask the thin narratives built throughout the spring. My analysis favors the younger contingent forcing a shakeup, but only if they are given the time to actually work.
Expect at least one match to overstay its welcome, clocking in over 22 minutes, which will likely kill the crowd's energy before the main event. It is a cynical take, certainly, but it reflects years of pacing issues that continue to plague the promotion on pay-per-view. The wrestling will be technically proficient, yet tactically devoid of the 'must-see' tension required to move the needle on a global scale.
