My AEW Dynasty 2026 predictions and the biggest upset in Kansas City

The Calm Before the Storm in Kansas City

We are exactly six days away from AEW Dynasty descending on Kansas City. March 30 cannot get here fast enough. If you have been watching Dynamite over the last two months, you already know the vibe. The top of the card is absolute fire. The in-ring product is hitting that 2021 sweet spot where every main event feels like it actually matters.

But let’s not pretend everything is perfect. The undercard is still dragging its feet in the mud. Tony Khan still has this infuriating habit of cooling off red-hot talent just to feed them into the Chris Jericho vortex. We saw it on Collision just last Saturday. A twenty-minute competitive match where Jericho goes over a younger guy who desperately needed the win. It is exhausting.

It is the exact same mistake AEW was making three years ago, and they refuse to learn from it. You cannot build the stars of tomorrow if you are constantly protecting the stars of 1999.

Despite the midcard booking frustrations, the big matches at Dynasty are genuinely massive. The build has been mostly great. The stakes feel real. Let’s run through the card, call the winners, and pick out the one massive upset that is going to break Wrestling Twitter on Sunday night.

Swerve Strickland vs. Kazuchika Okada (AEW World Championship)

Swerve is the guy. He has been the guy. Putting the belt back on him was the easiest decision Tony Khan ever made. The crowd in Kansas City is going to treat him like a god the second his music hits.

Then you have Okada. The Rainmaker has finally settled into his role in America. He isn’t just doing the smug heel routine anymore. He is ripping people’s heads off. The closing stretch of his match with Claudio Castagnoli three weeks ago was terrifying. Okada looked like the final boss of professional wrestling.

This match is going to be a 35-minute war of attrition. Swerve is going to target Okada’s neck. Okada is going to try to break Swerve’s posture with those disgusting dropkicks. He wants to keep Swerve grounded and eliminate the high-flying offense.

The Prediction: Swerve retains. It is too early to take the belt off him. AEW needs a stable, dominant champion right now, and Swerve is the most reliable draw they have. Okada doesn't need the belt to be a menace. Swerve wins after a third House Call finally puts Okada down for the three-count.

Will Ospreay vs. MJF (Unsanctioned Match)

This is the one. This is the match everyone is buying the pay-per-view for.

MJF has done some of his best character work ever in this build. Stripping away the cheap heat and just being a vicious, bitter sociopath works perfectly against Ospreay's chaotic babyface energy. That promo segment two weeks ago in Toronto? Absolute masterclass.

MJF didn't yell. He didn't pace around the ring looking for a cheap pop from the cheap seats. He just quietly explained exactly how he was going to end Ospreay's career, directly referencing Ospreay's history of neck injuries. It was cold, calculated, and brilliant.

Ospreay is currently the best in-ring performer on the planet. Nobody operates at his speed while maintaining that level of precision. But an unsanctioned match changes the geometry of how Ospreay wrestles. He can't just rely on the Hidden Blade out of nowhere. He has to brawl. He has to get ugly. And brawling in the mud is exactly where MJF wants him.

The only real flaw in this feud is the pacing. Dragging it out to Dynasty felt like a stretch, and the go-home angles felt a bit repetitive. But once the bell rings, none of that will matter.

The Prediction: MJF wins. Ospreay is bulletproof. He can lose a brutal, bloody war and still be the most popular guy in the building the next night on Dynamite. MJF needs this win to solidify his transition into this darker, more violent persona. Expect a sickening finish involving the diamond ring and a steel chair.

Mariah May (c) vs. Jamie Hayter (AEW Women's World Championship)

The women's division has quietly become the most consistent part of AEW television. That isn't a sentence I thought I would be typing a few years ago. The booking actually makes sense now.

Mariah May’s title reign has been a revelation. She completely stepped out of Toni Storm’s shadow and became a vicious, arrogant champion. Her matches hit incredibly hard. She wrestles with a massive chip on her shoulder.

Then there is Jamie Hayter. The pop she got when she finally returned from injury was deafening. The fans never forgot about her. She still hits the ripcord lariat harder than anyone else in the business. She looks like she actually wants to hurt her opponents.

This is going to be a pure, unadulterated slugfest. No outside interference. No spooky lighting. Just two women trying to cave each other's chests in.

The Prediction: Jamie Hayter wins. It is time. Mariah has had a great run, but Hayter is the uncrowned ace of the division. The crowd in Kansas City will blow the roof off the building when Hayter hits that final lariat.

The Young Bucks vs. FTR (Two out of Three Falls)

I know what you're thinking. Again? Really?

Yes, really. And it is going to be awesome.

We can complain all day about the tag team division feeling stagnant, and that is a highly valid criticism. The Acclaimed are stuck in a weird holding pattern. Private Party still haven't broken through that final glass ceiling. But when you put the Bucks and FTR in the ring together, magic happens.

They know each other’s movesets perfectly. The counters to the counters are going to be absurd. The Bucks will play the obnoxious corporate heels, and Cash and Dax will play the gritty, no-nonsense traditionalists. It is a formula that works every single time.

The Prediction: FTR wins. The Bucks don't need the belts to be insufferable authority figures on television. FTR needs the titles to anchor the division and start having fresh matches with younger teams. FTR takes the final fall after a chaotic 40-minute classic.

Konosuke Takeshita (c) vs. Orange Cassidy (Continental Championship)

Let’s talk about Takeshita. The man is a physical freak of nature. He hits harder than a freight train and moves like a cruiserweight. Don Callis has been standing at ringside doing his usual carnival barker routine, but Takeshita doesn’t even need him anymore. He is a made man on this roster.

Then you have Orange Cassidy. The most polarizing guy in the company, but undeniably one of the most consistent big-match performers Tony Khan has. Cassidy’s title runs always deliver because he plays the exhausted, beaten-down underdog better than anyone since 1990s Shawn Michaels.

This clash of styles is fascinating. Takeshita is going to try to take Cassidy’s head clean off with a running lariat. Cassidy is going to do that infuriating slow-motion shin kick routine just to make Takeshita angry enough to make a massive mistake.

The Prediction: Takeshita retains. Taking the belt off him right now would be booking malpractice. He needs a dominant run with a singles title to cement him as a future World Champion. Cassidy will make him work for it, and the near-falls will be heart-stopping, but Takeshita hits a devastating Blue Thunder Bomb to end the night.

The Upset Call: Jack Perry drops the TNT Title

This is my lock of the week.

Jack Perry has done great work as the Scapegoat. The heat he gets from the live crowds is nuclear. But the TNT title reign feels like it has completely run its course. He has defended it against everyone in the upper midcard, and the matches are starting to blur together.

Darby Allin is a madman. He is going to jump off something ridiculous in Kansas City. He always does. But more importantly, Darby is the perfect guy to take the belt off Perry. It gives Darby something meaningful to do on television every week, and it frees Perry up to move into the main event picture where he belongs.

The crowd expects Perry to cheat his way to another dirty victory. That is exactly why it is going to be so shocking when Darby catches him in a desperation roll-up or hits a Coffin Drop out of absolutely nowhere for the win.

Tony Khan has a massive opportunity on March 30. The card is loaded. The venue is going to be packed. If AEW can avoid their usual pacing issues—please, no more 25-minute talking segments in the middle of a pay-per-view—Dynasty could easily be the show of the year. Here is what needs to happen:

• Keep the pre-show to exactly one hour and avoid burning the crowd out early.
• Let Swerve and Okada wrestle a clean match without any interference.
• Give the women's title match the semi-main event slot it actually deserves.

But above all else, they have to stick the landing. The winners have to make sense. We don't need convoluted run-ins or sudden blackouts. Just ring the damn bell and let the best roster in the world do what they do best.