The dust has settled at the SAP Center in San Jose, and the road to Wembley Stadium is officially open. Yesterday's Forbidden Door pay-per-view resolved the immediate tournament brackets, locking in the top challenger spots for All In. Will Ospreay and Mercedes Moné emerged victorious, claiming the Owen Hart Foundation tournament cups.

Yet, the paths they took to get here have left the championship pictures fractured. The tactical routes to London are contentious, messy, and filled with faction politics. If you watched the tape closely, you saw the cracks forming in real time.

AEW is heading into its biggest show of the year with two tournament winners who feel less like destiny and more like political compromise. Let's break down the tape from San Jose and see where the chess pieces lie.

The Death Riders Loom Over Ospreay’s Wembley Coronation

Will Ospreay’s main event clash with Swerve Strickland was a brutal, physically exhausting 35-minute war. The work rate was undeniable, but the execution raised serious tactical questions. Ospreay survived Strickland’s signature House Call kicker at the 28-minute mark, a spot that should have ended the night. Instead, Ospreay responded with a sudden Hidden Blade, shifting the momentum in a flash.

Then came the finish, which left a bitter taste for purists. Ospreay did not win with his own arsenal. He needed a Death Rider, a lifting double underhook DDT, and a Tiger Driver '91 to finally pin Strickland. This was not a clean triumph; it was a faction statement.

The presence of the Death Riders faction at ringside changed the entire dynamic of the contest. Their interference directly assisted Ospreay during the final five minutes of the match. It raises the question of whether Ospreay is being positioned as a solo megastar or merely Jon Moxley's proxy. This booking decision dilutes Ospreay's babyface appeal as he prepares for Wembley.

Meanwhile, the championship he is chasing is in complete disarray. MJF, the reigning AEW World Champion, suffered a massive setback in the 12-man Steel Cage match. Team Briscoe took the victory after Andrade El Ídolo turned on MJF in a shocking betrayal. MJF was pinned, showing that the champion is far more vulnerable than he lets on.

This leads directly to Dynamite on July 1, where MJF must defend the gold against Mark Briscoe. Briscoe has all the momentum after pinning the champion inside the cage. If Briscoe pulls off the upset, the Wembley main event changes entirely. Ospreay might find himself facing a folk hero instead of his generational rival.

But the smart money remains on MJF retaining through hook or crook. MJF is a master of survival, even when his alliance network is crumbling around him. The question is how much of MJF will be left by the time Ospreay gets him in London.

Tactical breakdown: How Ospreay neutralized Swerve’s speed

Strickland entered the match with a clear game plan. He targeted Ospreay's left shoulder, using arm-drags and a hammerlock DDT onto the apron at the 12-minute mark. Ospreay's aerial offense was severely limited for the next ten minutes. He had to rely on high-impact strikes and forearm exchanges to stay alive.

Ospreay's adjustment came when he stopped trying to fly. He baited Strickland into a corner, hit a modified Buckshot Lariat, and immediately followed it with a Hidden Blade to the back of the neck. This sequence at the 22-minute mark changed the tempo completely. Ospreay's ability to pivot from high-flying acrobatics to raw striking is his greatest asset.

However, the match suffered from unnecessary melodrama. The ref bump at the 30-minute mark felt cheap. It opened the door for the Death Riders to run down, which took the focus away from the two best athletes in the company. For a tournament final of this stature, we deserved a clean finish without the extracurricular activities.

Joshi Grit Meets Corporate Television Pacing

In the women's division, Mercedes Moné secured her Wembley spot by defeating Maya World. Moné is now a two-time Owen Hart Foundation tournament winner. The match itself was a fascinating clash of philosophies. Moné brought her standard big-match television pacing, while World brought the relentless, high-intensity offense she has developed on the independent circuit.

The finish was clean and decisive. Moné hit an inverted backstabber from the second rope, transitioning smoothly into the Statement Maker submission hold. World had no choice but to tap out at the 18-minute mark. It was a professional, calculated victory that showed Moné's veteran instincts.

But the match was not without its flaws. The middle section dragged heavily, with the crowd at the SAP Center falling completely silent during a five-minute headlock sequence. Moné's reliance on slow, methodical heat segments often clashes with the fast-paced style that modern fans expect. It is a formula that works on weekly television but can feel dated on pay-per-view.

Now, Moné faces the ultimate test in Thekla. The reigning AEW Women's World Champion successfully defended her title against Starlight Kid on June 28, 2026. Thekla's style is the polar opposite of Moné's polished presentation. Thekla represents the raw, chaotic energy of the Stardom roster, characterized by stiff strikes and dangerous high-angle suplexes.

Thekla's victory over Starlight Kid was a masterclass in violence. She won via a brutal spider German suplex followed by her signature submission. Thekla does not care about television time limits or camera angles. She wrestles to destroy her opponents, which will create a fascinating stylistic dynamic at Wembley.

During the post-show media scrum, the tension between the two was already building. Moné dismissed Thekla's championship reign as a fluke, while Thekla promised to paint the Wembley canvas with Moné's blood. This is the match that could steal the show, provided the booking does not get in the way.

The Booking Conundrum: Can AEW Avoid Over-Booking Wembley?

Tony Khan faces a massive challenge as he builds toward the stadium show. The biggest complaint from Forbidden Door was the heavy-handed booking. We saw run-ins, faction turns, and ref bumps in almost every major match. The Forbidden Door post-show presser showed a locker room divided by these faction wars. If Wembley is going to succeed, the focus must return to the wrestling itself.

We do not need the Death Riders interfering in Ospreay’s championship match. We do not need a dozen ringside managers interfering in the women's title match. The fans are paying to see Will Ospreay push MJF to his limits, and to see if Thekla can survive Moné's star power. Keep the ringside clear, let the athletes work, and the results will speak for themselves.

Let's also look at the undercard. The tag team division is currently spinning its wheels. The Young Bucks defended their positions but the division lacks clear direction. AEW needs to rebuild its tag team ranks before the trip to London, or else the card will feel top-heavy and bloated.

Predictions for Wembley: The Smart Money is on the Challengers

Here are the confident predictions for the two top matches on August 30, 2026, and I will own these calls. First, Will Ospreay will defeat MJF to become the new AEW World Champion. Ospreay is wrestling at a level that no one else in the world can match right now. Despite the faction clutter, Ospreay’s connection with the UK crowd will carry him to victory in front of his home fans.

The finish will likely involve Ospreay hitting a Stormbreaker followed by a clean Hidden Blade. MJF’s reign has been entertaining, but his character has run its course. A title change is necessary to refresh the main event scene.

In the women’s championship match, Mercedes Moné will defeat Thekla to capture the gold. While Thekla’s vicious style is impressive, Moné’s political capital and big-match experience will be too much to overcome. Expect Moné to survive an early onslaught of Stardom strikes before locking in the Statement Maker for a submission victory.

It will be a controversial decision that might upset the hardcore fans who prefer Thekla's raw style. However, AEW is a business that relies on star power, and Moné remains their biggest female asset. The road to Wembley is messy, but the destination promises to be historic.

For more details on the locker room reaction and the fallout from San Jose, check out the post-show media scrum report. The next few weeks of Dynamite will show us if these predictions hold weight.