The Sudden Cloud Over the Redwood

Ten days out from Double or Nothing in Las Vegas, the atmosphere backstage in AEW should be focused on the high-stakes matchups. Instead, a report from Ringside News has shifted the spotlight onto Big Bill. The man formerly known as the Redwood of the Learning Tree is reportedly facing an uncertain future as his contract status remains unclear.

It is a strange development for a wrestler who has spent the last year reinventing himself. Bill has gone from a released WWE talent struggling with personal demons to one of the most reliable big men in the industry. Losing him now, especially given the tactical void it would leave in the mid-card, would be a massive strategic error for Tony Khan.

Bill is not just a body; he is a 7-foot insurance policy. In a promotion filled with high-flyers and technical wizards, Bill provides the verticality and power that grounds the more chaotic matches. If he is indeed on his way out, his match at Double or Nothing on May 24, 2026, suddenly carries a much heavier weight.

Tactical Utility and the Learning Tree

From a purely analytical perspective, Bill’s role in the Learning Tree alongside Chris Jericho and Bryan Keith is a masterclass in ring positioning. Watch him during any trios match. He doesn't just stand on the apron; he shades toward the center, cutting off the ring and forcing opponents to take the long way around if they want to tag out.

His signature big boot is a marvel of biomechanics for a man of his stature. Most giants struggle with balance when extending their center of gravity that high. Bill manages to keep his base leg slightly bent, allowing for a quicker recovery if he misses. It is the kind of detail that separates a "lumbering giant" from a genuine athlete.

The Learning Tree gimmick, for all its polarizing reception, has allowed Bill to show off a personality that was often suppressed in his earlier career. He isn't just the silent heater anymore. He has timing. He knows when to lean into the absurdity of Jericho's "For The World" (FTW) philosophy, playing the earnest student with a straight face that adds a layer of dry comedy to the violence he inflicts.

The Impact of the Exit

If Bill leaves, the Learning Tree loses its physical foundation. Bryan Keith is a technical specialist with a mean streak, but he cannot provide the "screen" that Bill offers. When Bill is in the ring, Jericho can take breathers, hide behind a 280-pound wall, and pick his spots. Without that wall, the aging veteran is going to be exposed much more frequently to the high-pace offense of younger rosters.

We saw this during the tag title run with Ricky Starks. Bill did the heavy lifting, taking the heat and distributing punishment so Starks could play the flamboyant finisher. It was a perfect tactical marriage. Breaking up that duo was already a questionable booking decision; letting the powerhouse of that team walk away entirely is even more baffling.

The Criticism: A Giant Relegated to a Prop

However, we have to address the negative reality of Bill’s current trajectory. While he has improved technically, he is currently being used as a glorified prop for Chris Jericho’s ego-driven storylines. This is a man who should be contending for the International Championship or even the AEW World Title. Instead, he is carrying Jericho’s bags and participating in skits that often feel like they belong in a different era of television.

"Big Bill may quietly be approaching the end of his AEW run — or at least that’s the belief some people inside the company have," reported Ringside News.

This stagnation is likely why contract talks are hit or miss. Why would a 7-footer with his level of mobility stay in a company that sees him as a background character in a comedy troupe? He has the look, the promo ability, and the work rate to be a top-tier heel in any promotion on the planet. If AEW isn't willing to move him past the "Redwood" phase, someone else certainly will.

The match at Double or Nothing, likely a trios encounter against HOOK, Katsuyori Shibata, and a partner of their choosing, will be the tell. In wrestling, when a contract is up and a wrestler is leaving, they usually "do the honors." If we see Bill taking a pinfall in the middle of the ring after a relatively short match, we can start mourning his AEW tenure.

The Double or Nothing Prediction

Look at the numbers. Bill hasn't won a meaningful singles match on a pay-per-view in months. He is the designated "bump taker" for the Learning Tree. When HOOK hits that T-Bone suplex on a man of Bill's size, it gets a massive pop, and Bill is professional enough to make it look like a car crash. But it’s a waste of his potential as a dominant force.

At Double or Nothing, I expect a chaotic brawl that spills into the crowd. Bill will likely dominate the early stages, isolating Shibata and using his reach to prevent HOOK from locking in the Redrum. But the story of the Learning Tree is ultimately the story of Jericho’s hubris. Jericho will try to give a "lesson" at the wrong time, it will backfire, and Bill will be the one left to clean up the mess.

My prediction: HOOK and Shibata find a way to neutralize the giant. I see Bill taking a spectacular fall through a table on the outside, leaving Jericho alone to take the submission loss. It serves two purposes: it continues the Jericho vs. HOOK saga and it gives Bill a high-impact exit if he is indeed finished with the company.

Final Call: The Learning Tree loses in the 14th minute of the match. Bill puts in a performance that makes every other promoter in the world reach for their phone. It will be a bittersweet reminder of what AEW had and failed to fully utilize. If this is the end, Bill goes out as a better wrestler than he arrived, which is the ultimate mark of a successful run, even if the booking didn't always match the talent.