The shadow of Las Vegas looms large

Double or Nothing has always been the heartbeat of AEW, dating back to that electric night in 2019 where Cody Rhodes took that chair to the back of the head. We are now heading into May 24, 2026, and the promotion finds itself in a strange, moody place. The company is leaner, meaner, but definitely missing a bit of the reckless genius it started with.

We saw Josh Barnett pull the plug on his project, a move that felt like a punch to the gut for anyone valuing the shoot-style aesthetic, as recent reports on Bloodsport's demise perfectly captured. AEW needs to avoid that same feeling of a fading spark. If they don't deliver a banger in Vegas, they aren't dying, but they are going to be irrelevant.

The main event problem

The biggest question hanging over the night is the World Title picture. Maxwell Jacob Friedman has held that belt for a eternity in internet years, and the booking is starting to feel repetitive. You cannot have him win every title defense by using the Dynamite Diamond Ring when the ref is incapacitated at the 22-minute mark. It is played out.

We need a massive babyface turn or a complete character reset. If they put the belt on a transitory challenger just to move the needle, the crowd in Vegas will riot in exactly the way Tony Khan does *not* want. MJF needs to face someone who actually threatens his current rhythm, like a returning Omega who has spent the last year rebuilding his body through physical therapy and sheer spite.

The NXT crossover hangover

WWE recently had the gall to raid developmental for main roster spots while fans were still processing WrestleMania 41. As we analyzed last week, the desperation to keep Raw feeling fresh is a symptom of a bloated roster that doesn't actually know what to do with its talent. AEW has the opposite problem: a roster that is too talented and not enough television time.

This is why the inclusion of a surprise crossover or a high-profile free agent signing on the DoN card is actually a mistake. They don't need another name. They need the names they already have—like Jamie Hayter or Malakai Black—to actually get meaningful, sustained pushes that don't involve losing a random three-way match on Saturday night.

The wild card factor

If there is one thing that could flip the narrative, it is the tag team division. Historically, this belt was the gold standard, the reason you turned on the TV in 2021. Lately, it has been lost in the shuffle of trios titles and confusing inter-promotional partnerships. The tag team titles need to feel like they matter more than a secondary showcase.

Bringing back a lapsed star or a surprise debut into the tag scene would be a waste unless that team has a three-year plan. Wrestling fans have long memories, and they will know instantly if you are just throwing two guys together for a quick pop. The company has to move away from the 'big event' booking style where every match is a dream match with zero storyline juice.

Predicting the chaos

Expect a title change that makes zero sense to the online pundits but perfect sense for the live house. It is the AEW way. They need to secure a win here to transition into the summer months properly.

If we get through this show and the biggest story is still about who is unhappy in the locker room, the promotion is in trouble. Tony Khan needs to prove that this show isn't just another stop on the calendar. Give me a clean finish, give me a long-term payoff, and keep the shenanigans to a minimum. If that fails, it is time for a real, uncomfortable conversation about where this ship is actually headed.