Looking past the Vegas spectacle

WrestleMania 41 is swallowing the entire wrestling world this weekend in Las Vegas. Night 1 is literally happening right now, and the Allegiant Stadium crowd is already losing their minds over the John Cena farewell and CM Punk's major collision. Night 2 is looming tomorrow with Cody Rhodes putting the WWE Championship on the line against the Bloodline machine. But while everyone is popping for the stadium entrances, the real sickos are already looking ahead to May 9.

WWE Backlash 2026 is just twenty days away. The post-Mania pay-per-view is historically a dumping ground for rematches, but under Triple H, it has become a proving ground. You don't just get a rematch. You get a chaotic street fight or a triple threat thrown together to settle a grievance that spilled out of the stadium. Backlash is where the dust settles and the actual summer storylines begin.

So let's strip away the stadium pageantry and look at the actual championship matches we are likely getting in May. Some of these are obvious. Others require reading the tea leaves of how the booking has been trending since the Royal Rumble.

Cody Rhodes is going to face Jacob Fatu, and it will be brutal

Assuming Cody Rhodes survives Night 2 of WrestleMania tomorrow, his immediate future is violently clear. You don't just beat Roman Reigns or survive the Bloodline without an immediate consequence. The consequence is Jacob Fatu. Fatu has been the designated hitman for months, entirely protected in tag matches and run-ins. Putting him in a main event singles match for the WWE Championship at Backlash makes entirely too much sense.

Cody is at his absolute best when he's taking a beating and bleeding buckets. Fatu works incredibly stiff and reckless. It's a perfect clash of styles. WWE will likely book this as a No Disqualification match to hide Fatu's green edges in a 25-minute main event.

My prediction here is straightforward. Cody retains, but only barely. Fatu hits a moonsault through an announce table, and Cody squeaks out a win with three Cross Rhodes. It gives Fatu the monster rub without putting the belt on him before SummerSlam.

The Women's World Championship needs a hard reset

Let's be completely honest for a second. The build for the Raw women's title heading into this weekend has been completely disjointed. Rhea Ripley has spent weeks cutting the exact same promo, and Liv Morgan's revenge tour has lost its heat. Whoever walks out of WrestleMania with the belt is going to need a fresh opponent immediately.

This is where WWE's creative flaws are glaringly obvious. They spent so much time on the top two women that the rest of the division feels like an afterthought. Iyo Sky is right there, wrestling circles around everyone on Main Event. Lyra Valkyria is treading water doing backstage segments that lead nowhere.

At Backlash, we are probably getting a triple threat to mask the lack of a clear number one contender. Expect Ripley, Morgan, and a newly drafted superstar like Tiffany Stratton to fight for the title. Ripley retains here. She needs a solid dominant run through the spring to wash off the messy booking of March.

CM Punk and the World Heavyweight Championship

Punk's match tonight is going to dictate the entire summer for Raw. If Punk walks out with the World Heavyweight Championship, he instantly becomes the target for every heel on the roster. Drew McIntyre is the obvious answer, but we've seen that match entirely too many times over the last two years.

Instead, look for Gunther to immediately step up. Gunther lost the belt last year and has been quietly destroying the midcard ever since. A Punk versus Gunther match at Backlash is a guaranteed money-maker. The story writes itself. Punk is the gritty veteran holding together his body with tape. Gunther is the Ring General who exploits every physical weakness.

Prediction: Punk drops the title in his first defense. Gunther is a machine, and having Punk chase him through the summer is a better story than Punk holding the belt for a 100-day reign. Gunther wins by referee stoppage after locking in a sleeper hold on a bloodied Punk.

LA Knight needs a serious challenger for the US Title

We need to talk about the United States Championship. LA Knight has held onto this thing tightly, and the crowd still erupts when his music hits. The chants haven't died down at all. But the match quality has been painfully average over the last two months. He keeps getting slotted into multi-man spots or defending against guys with zero momentum.

If Knight retains this weekend, he needs a proper singles feud heading into Backlash. Andrade is the perfect candidate. Andrade has been floating around the upper midcard, having absolute bangers on television but failing to secure a marquee pay-per-view win. A program between the two would balance Knight's elite mic skills with Andrade's phenomenal ring work.

I predict Knight gets the win at Backlash, probably hitting the BFT after reversing a top-rope spot. But the match will serve as a stark reminder that Knight needs opponents who can push his pace. You can't just rely on catchphrases for a 20-minute pay-per-view match. It works on Raw, but it gets exposed on premium live events.

The tag team titles are an absolute mess

Here is my biggest problem with the current product. WWE has completely forgotten how to book traditional two-on-two tag team wrestling. The belts are props used to advance singles feuds. The Usos reuniting was a great moment, but what happens next? There are virtually no credible heel tag teams left to challenge them.

We are almost certainly getting an automatic rematch at Backlash for the WWE Tag Team Championships. It's lazy booking, but it's what they do when they have nothing else planned. The Street Profits or A-Town Down Under will probably get dragged out for a match that belongs on an episode of SmackDown.

The champions retain, but the crowd won't care. Until they rebuild the division with actual dedicated teams instead of thrown-together singles guys, the tag titles are going to suffer. The booking team needs to stop treating this division like an afterthought.

The Intercontinental Championship will steal the show

Bron Breakker has turned the Intercontinental Championship into the most exciting belt on television. His matches are violent, explosive, and rarely go past ten minutes. He runs through people like a freight train. Finding someone to believably take the belt off him is a massive challenge right now.

Enter Carmelo Hayes. Hayes has the speed and the in-ring IQ to actually counter Breakker's pure power. We saw flashes of this in NXT, but doing it on a main roster pay-per-view is a different beast entirely.

Expect Breakker versus Hayes to open Backlash. They will give them fifteen minutes to absolutely wreck each other. Breakker hits a spear out of mid-air to retain. It's too early to take the belt off Breakker, but Hayes will look like a star in defeat.

John Cena's ghost hangs over the card

With Cena's farewell happening this weekend, Backlash will be the first pay-per-view in a long time where his shadow isn't looming. The transition to the new era is fully complete. Cody, Breakker, Gunther, and Ripley are the undisputed faces of the company now. The safety net of bringing back a legend for a quick rating bump is completely gone.

Backlash 2026 is going to feel like a harsh reality check. The stadium shows are over until SummerSlam. We are back in standard arenas, with standard production, relying entirely on the in-ring product to carry the show. The card looks solid on paper, but WWE cannot rely on cheap nostalgia anymore.

They have to deliver bell-to-bell. Based on the likely matchups, the in-ring quality will be incredibly high, even if the creative build getting there feels a bit rushed. The post-Mania hangover is real, but a card headlined by Cody taking on the Bloodline's monster and Gunther dismantling Punk is a hell of a way to cure it.