The vacancy at the top of the card

AEW is heading into the second half of the year with a significant creative void surrounding one of its most popular stars. Following the Texas Death Match at Revolution, where MJF successfully defended his title, Adam Page is officially barred from challenging for the AEW World Championship. This restriction, imposed by the finish of that brutal contest, effectively forces a pivot for the former champion.

The promotion has now officially set its sights on Full Gear 2026, which will emanate from Phoenix this November. Bringing the event back to Arizona—the same state that hosted Double or Nothing 2025—suggests a desire to recapture that level of atmosphere. However, the card currently lacks a centerpiece for its heavyweight division, making the question of Page's opponent a primary point of friction for bookers.

Refining the narrative trajectory

Page’s current position is precarious. Having lost the opportunity for the top belt, he cannot simply cycle back into a title program without undermining the stakes established in earlier months. The creative team faces the choice of either building a non-title marquee grudge match or finding a loophole that resets his standing. Both paths contain inherent risks.

Looking at the recent history between Page and his rivals, specifically the intensity shown in his 2021-era feuds as documented in recent retrospectives, the company knows he thrives when he is the focal point of a personal emotional arc. Plucking him out of the title hunt to engage in a mid-card showcase for All In would be a massive strategic failure. He needs a high-profile dance partner, someone who forces the crowd to accept a non-title main event as a substitute for championship gold.

Analytical bottlenecks

The biggest issue with the current booking remains a lack of clear momentum for potential challengers. Many of the top-tier technicians are currently occupied in tag team programs or injury recovery cycles. If the company pushes for an outsider debut or a surprise return to face Page, they risk short-circuiting the existing roster's development.

Critics point out that the reliance on stipulations like the one banning Page from title contention is a double-edged sword. It creates short-term drama but often leaves the writers scrambling for a coherent follow-up. If the pay-off for this exile isn't an elite-level encounter, the promotion risks cooling off a performer who has spent years establishing himself as the primary babyface of the company.

The probability of a shock opponent

While rumors suggest internal discussions are ongoing regarding the All In lineup, the betting must favor an internal promotion over a free-agent signing. Bringing in a new face risks stalling in the ring chemistry department, whereas Page thrives on long-standing psychological friction. The likelihood of an external debut for the All In slot is currently assessed as low.

We expect the final decision on the opponent to be made public by late August. This provides a clear two-month window to execute a definitive turn or a new, violent rivalry. If management sticks to their current trajectory, the match will define the fourth quarter of the 2026 schedule for the entire company.

Expected impact

Should the match materialize as a non-title exhibition, the pressure is squarely on the participants. Page must produce a performance at the level of his Revolution showing to keep fans invested. Anything less than a critically acclaimed match will result in a significant drop-off in interest leading into the Phoenix show in November. The booking team has 16 weeks to prove that a title-less Page can still anchor an entire promotional cycle.